Saturday, October 18, 2008

Wait, what?!?!

On Thursday, I was all ready to write a post about how a Rays/Phillies World Series would actually be exciting, albeit a ratings nightmare. I held off though, partly because I'm extremely lazy, but also because I remembered what happened last year. By all accounts, the Rays should have already been preparing to face the newest addition to the Grown Ass Man Club, Cole Hamels in Game One of the World Series. Instead, the Boston Red Sox staged yet another improbable comeback in Game Five of the ALCS to stay alive. And moments ago, Jonathan Papelbon shut the door against Tampa Bay solidifying a 4-2 victory, forcing a Game Seven. Holy Crap!!


Hold on there kids...

Yes, I am an admitted Chicago White Sox fan. Yes, the Red Sox have the second highest payroll in the league. Yes, the Rays have reached the playoffs for the first time in franchise history. But can you even root for them at this point? They have some awesome young players who are great to watch, but considering the whole Manny cluster-F, it is kind of amazing that Boston is where they're at. As previously discussed on this very website, the home grown talent of the Red Sox is astounding and was once again on display tonight. Youkilis, Masterson, Papelbon were the three main factors of the game. Of course, you can't ignore what Josh Beckett did tonight either. I mean, no one knows how hurt he actually is. But he gutted it out ala Curt Schilling and we are one game away from a Red Sox/Phillies showdown.

When all is said and done, everyone will look back and wonder what the hell Joel Madden was thinking having Kazmir pitch before Shields. His reasoning seemed sound at the time, but YIKES! I'm sure FOX wasn't too keen on a Tampa Bay/Philly matchup, but I still maintain it would be a fun series to watch. Harkening back to my previous post about being a desensitized sports fan only proves my point. I am absolutely not shocked in the slightest the Boston is on the verge of stealing this series but I'm stoked to tune into TBS tomorrow (assuming they actually carry the friggin' game from start to finish this time). Can Garza close the door or will Lester rebound from his poor performance in Game Four? Oh yeah, there's football on all day tomorrow too! October rules!

Wednesday, October 15, 2008

There he go again...

There's nothing like waking up in the morning, turning on Sportscenter, and seeing Leon Powe block a game tying shot with ten seconds left. He once again led the team in scoring with a 17 point performance in 19 minutes of play. With Perk back in the starting lineup, the surprising Patrick O'Bryant moves to the bench, but I can easily see him being part of a 10 man rotation. Big Baby has been very disappointing so far this preseason so as long as Leon keeps up his strong play, Doc will have no choice but to give him steady minutes throughout the year.

Right?

Also-Boston just picked up the option on Rondo's contract for the 09-10 season. What kind of money do you think he'll be worth by then?

Tuesday, October 14, 2008

Half-Assed Links Column

It's been forever and a day since I've written something, but the Celtics starting the preseason have inspired me to pound this out...

-I'm glad that the Celts landed Darius Miles, but I'm dreading a season full of horribly punny headlines.

-Tommy Heinsohn may be the biggest homer that ever homered, but, God bless his soul, I love his spunk and highly biased basketball opinions. Unfortunately he's getting up there in years and won't be able to fill his usual role this year

(Ed. Note - This is a travesty.)

-Could this be Kobe's last year in the NBA? I for one think it would be interesting if the NBA had to start competing for players. The way the economy looks I don't blame players for taking the bait and heading to Europe.

-Even the NBA is starting to cut costs and send jobs overseas.

-I'm not a hockey fan, but any story involving a hit man is something I'd like to read about.

-I'm glad this exists, if only for balance in the sports universe. The first item on the second page is a gem.

That's all I got. Expecting more? How 'bout you read the headline again.

Monday, October 13, 2008

Is the NFC East Still the Powerhouse Division?

After what happened yesterday, the argument could be made that the NFC East isn't the division we thought it was. A recap if you missed any of the action.

St. Louis Rams defeat Washington Redskins, 19-17. Yes, that's right. You don't have to check the score again, it really happened. Josh Brown hit a last second field goal to put the worst team in football ahead of what was supposed to be one of the best teams in football. The Week 6 power ranking of Washington was #3. St. Louis was #32. I don't even know where to start. Adam and I both picked the Redskins to massacre the Rams. St. Louis didn't score a single offensive touchdown. One fumble return and 4 field goals (not all chip shots either) made this upset happen. St. Louis was penalized 10 times for 79 yards, which was 3 more yards than they rushed for. Marc Bulger threw for 136 yards and that was it. It was an ugly game, an ugly win, but the one Rams fan at the bar I was at didn't care. I shook his hand and congratulated him once it was all said and done and told him I never saw that coming. He said he expected to go 0-16, so this was a great day for him. I will never underestimate a team again, no matter how bad they are.

Arizona Cardinals defeat Dallas Cowboys, 30-24 in overtime. Let's face it. There is absolutely no valid argument for the Cowboys being the best team in the NFC anymore. Their defense can't stop any decent offense (only the Browns and Packers were held below 20 points), and their offense is led by a player who doesn't even care about football. Yes, I said it and I will stand by it.

Just after the Cowboys got a field goal at the end of the 4th quarter to send them into overtime, the cameras showed Romo joking around with a player from the Cardinals. Yeah, you can be friends with the guy off the field. That's fine. After the game, have dinner, play video games, whatever. But...when your team is going into overtime and you need this win to keep up with your division, the worst thing you can do to instill confidence in your teammates is pal around with a guy on the other side. Right now, he is your opponent. Talk to your own teammates, start figuring out the game plan once you get the ball. Don't pal around with the other team, telling him about what new trick Jessica Simpson did with her mouth the other night.

Edit: Just read on ESPN.com that Tony Romo is out four weeks with a broken pinkie. Chances of him ending up on a red carpet or tropical country somewhere during that time? Better than the Cowboys' chances of making the playoffs, I'll tell you that.

So, after Romo showed how he doesn't have his head in the game, what happens? 3 and out, punt block, Arizona returns for a touchdown, game over. I hope Tony Romo reflects on this while lying on a beach in Mexico before blowing his next playoff game. The difference between Tony Romo and Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Brett Favre, and Eli Manning is that those guys are quarterbacks first, celebrities second. Romo would rather be on the cover of People than Sports Illustrated, and that is the sole reason why Tony Romo will never be one of the NFL's legends.

Philadelphia Eagles defeat San Francisco 49ers, 40-26. But...and this is a big but. The score was 26-17 going into the 4th quarter. Philly is a great team and put together a giant 4th, but San Fran gave the game up. By the end of the game, they had beaten themselves into the ground with mistakes and missed opportunities, and that's why the Eagles came out on top. I talked to Eagles fans last night and today, and while they're happy they came out with the win, they know their team needs to start playing up to their potential if they want to be a legitimate contender. I agree. When they bring their A game, Illadelph might be the best team in the NFL. They've been their own worst enemy this season, and have a lot to iron out in the upcoming months.

With that, the New York Giants are alone on top of the division. If the Browns pull off the win tonight, they'll still be on top. They've got the best defense in the division hands down, the best quarterback in the division right now, but there's still a lot of football to be played. We'll see how the G-Dudes do tonight. If they can pull ahead 1.5 games in the division, that will be big.

So if the NFC East isn't the best division in football, who is? The NFC North, where the Packers, Vikings, and Bears are tied for 1st at 3-3? No. The AFC East, where the surprise Bills are on top, with the Jets and Patriots making cases for themselves and the Dolphins looking like a solid playoff contender? No. The toughest division from last season, the AFC South, where the Titans are off to a great start, the Colts are looking alive, and the Jaguars are putting together wins? No.

The new powerhouse is the NFC South. Tampa Bay, Carolina, and Atlanta are all 4-2. New Orleans is 3-3. Take away the blown non-offsides call against the Broncos (see picture below for proof) and assume Grammatica would have been able to hit at worst, a 36 yard attempt (the offsides call would have given the Saints a 1st down inside the Denver 20 instead of a 4th down at the 24). Consider that, and the Saints should be 4-2. The Falcons aren't winning by pure luck, and the Buccaneers absolutely dominated the Panthers who were thought to be the better team. You can make the argument that the strength of schedule for the NFC South teams isn't that great. You can make the argument the Falcons and Panthers are overplaying and won't keep this up. You can make a lot of arguments against the NFC South, but what is probably the smallest market of any division in the NFL is quietly playing some great football.

This isn't even a close call. Do the referees really love Denver this much?
If this call isn't blown and Hochuli doesn't screw the Super Chargers,
the Broncos are 2-4. They're not actually a good team, just very lucky.

Will the NFC South keep it up? Maybe. If James from the future came back to tell me that the Falcons and Panthers played in the NFC Championship, I wouldn't doubt him. The Rams won yesterday, and this is by far the weirdest, craziest, most insanest football season in a long time. At least once a week I keep finding myself feeling like Murphy in Boondock Saints after Rocco shoots the cat and just thinking, "I can't believe that just fucking happened...". Maybe the NFC South starts dropping games left and right, maybe they keep dominating the rest of their schedule and the NFC East only sends one team to the postseason. If the Bucs, Panthers, and Falcons all made the playoffs, would you really be that surprised?

Sunday, October 12, 2008

Week 6 Picks, Comin At Ya!

As you may have noticed, we had two sets up picks here on the site last week... Adam Man's picks which had been running already, and picks from our newest contributer James. To avoid any redundancy, we here at SPLP have decided it's best to merge the two into a comprehensive NFL picks column. James and myself will each breakdown half of the games each week, and you'll get both of our predictions for each one. It should be fun to see who does better each week... though with both of us going 6-9 for week 5, maybe not so much. I'll also be cutting down the "Fantasy Love/Fantasy Hate" sections to one guy I think will play great this week, and one guy I think will have a really bad week. Easier to keep track that way.

One problem with this new format is that it takes a level of coordination that we generally don't possess, hence the 12:30 on Sunday update this week. Please bear with us as we work out the kinks, and hopefully we'll be posting mid-week before you know it. On to the Picks!

Week 6 Picks

Falcons at Bears (-3.5)
James: Guess who's 3-2? Both these teams, and they're two of the most pleasant surprises this season. Atlanta's guaranteed themselves at the very least, respect as a legitimate team again, and Chicago has found not only a quarterback, but a diamond in the rough in Matt Forte at running back. Kyle Orton and Da Bears will host Matty Heisman and the Dirty Birds in a game that will send one team to .500 and solidifying the other team as the real deal. Michael Turner has run very well against softer defenses, but was shut down by Carolina and Tampa Bay. He had a good game against Green Bay, and is going to be a major factor. His ability to run the ball is maybe the most important aspect of Atlanta's ability to win this game.
James' pick: Chicago wins 28-24

Adam's pick: Chicago, 20-17. Unfortunately for Atlanta, Chicago's run D is beastly.
Fantasy Love: Matt Forte
Fantasy Hate: Michael Turner

Ravens @ Colts (-2)
James: Refer to my last post about the Texans game to gauge my feelings on where the Colts are as a football team and how this momentum may carry over for them. The Colts' offense is slowly but surely clicking, and with the offensive line this Sunday the same as last week, I expect a much better rhythm. That being said, none of this matters if Indianapolis can't make plays. Joseph Addai's going to need to rush more than 50 yards, Peyton Manning needs to pick up on the Ravens' blitz packages and make them pay, and the team needs to minimize mistakes on a whole. The Ravens are a tough team that grinds it out for a full 60 minutes, and the Colts can't play 4 good minutes and win the game this Sunday. They need to play hard and better than Baltimore for the full hour.
James' pick: Indianapolis wins 20-16

Adam's pick: I hate to agree with James on the Colts, but I pick Indy, 21-13.
Fantasy Love: Reggie Wayne
Fantasy Hate: Joe Flacco

Lions @ Vikings (-10.5)
Adam: Let's get one thing clear: the Detroit Lions are a hot mess. And there's only one guy who can pull them out of it... Superstar Dan Orlovsky. I really only know about the guy because my girlfriend is from Connecticut and I know James, but it's hard to root against a guy from UConn making an impact in the NFL. All the QB play in the world won't make that horrible defense look any better however, and I see Adrian Peterson putting on a clinic here. Also, a week after Kyle Orton looked all-world against the Lions, this might be a good time to get aboard the Gus Bus once again.
Adam's prediction: Minnesota, 31-10
James's prediction: Detroit over Minnesoter, 28-24
Fantasy Love:
All Day Purple Jesus
Fantasy Hate: Rudi Johnson

Raiders @ Saints (-7)
Adam: The Raiders come off the bye week with a new head coach, their starting RB back in the lineup, and very little hope of beating the Saints, in my opinion. The Crypt Keeper managed to replace Lane Kiffin with an even more obscure name (Tom Cable?) who's spent most of his career coaching linemen. Considering how well the Raiders run the ball, he's obviously done a good job... but he's in a little over his head now. The Saints shot themselves in the foot last week and didn't finish out their drives. This week they won't have that problem, especially if Marques Colston finally returns from his thumb injury. Oh, and I guess it's worth noting that Reggie Bush is starting to look as good as he did in college, and that should make every coach in the league shudder just a little bit.
Adam's prediction: Saints, 31-17.
James's prediction: New Orleans over Oakland, 17-0.
Fantasy Love: Reggie Bush
Fantasy Hate: JaMarcus Russell

Bengals @ Jets (-7.5)
James: The Bengals need to win this game. After this week, the Bengals play Houston on the road (and I don't think Houston's going to give up another heartbreaker), and their next winnable game is week 16. If you haven't gotten a win by week 16, you've already thrown in the towel and given up. Ryan Fitzpatrick gets the start for Cinci this Sunday, and Bengal faithful are crossing their figures he's the right ingredient to make their offense click. The Jets are coming off a bye week and a romping of Arizona where their defense showed some signs of life. One of Brett Favre's biggest concerns was the fact that his knowledge of the Jets playbook wasn't quite there yet. The bye week definitely helped him get the plays down, and while he might not throw for 6 TD's this week, you can almost guarantee he'll find the end zone once or twice.
James' pick: New York wins 38-10

Adam's prediction: Cincinnati breaks through, 21-17
Fantasy Love: Ocho Cinco
Fantasy Hate: Thomas Jones

Panthers @ Buccaneers (+3.5)
Adam: The wacky NFC South has a battle for 1st place in the division here. The Panthers are up to their old 2-RB system tricks... just when you felt good about benching DeAngelo Williams and starting Jonathan Stewert, Williams breaks out and has the game of his life. I've always been high on Williams, and even I had him on my bench last week. I still wouldn't bet on any consistency from that duo, however, and especially not against the Bucs. Tampa is crazy good at home, and that week 3 win over the Bears is starting to look even more impressive. Tampa also has the opposite situation as Carolina, where both Earnest Graham and Warrick Dunn are dependable fantasy options every week. I see Tampa controlling the ball at home and pulling into a tie for the division lead.
Adam's prediction: Tampa Bay, 21-17
James's prediction: Carolina over Tampa Bay, 22-21
Fantasy Love: Graham and Dunn
Fantasy Hate: Steve Smith

Rams @ Redskins (-13.5)
James: When referring to this game, Adam called it a bloodbath. St. Louis can avoid this becoming truth if they do 2 very simple things. First, they need to defend against Washington's plethora of weapons. Wait, let me go back. First, the Rams need to have a defense on the field to defend against Washington. If their 32nd ranked defense can so much as contain Jason Campbell, Santana Moss, Chris Cooley, Clinton Portis, and Antwaan Randle El, then they need to score. This should be slightly easier, because their offense is ranked slightly better, at...oh wait, they're also last in the NFL in points per game. I really don't know the Rams' strategy going into this game. I think they'll try to run the ball, because that makes the game go faster, and aside from that, they'll just try to get through the 60 minutes without embarrassing themselves too much.
James' pick: Washington wins 42-0

Adam's pick: Redskins, 34-10
Fantasy Love: Clinton Portis
Fantasy Hate: Marc Bulger

Dolphins @ Texans (+2.5)
Adam: Let me put this in the plainest terms possible: The Texans do not lose this game. The Dolphins do NOT win their third straight game against a more talented opponent. Greg Camarillo does not yet cement himself as the next Wes Welker. Sage Rosenfels does NOT scramble with a lead and under 5 minutes left. Bing. Bang. Boom. Houston wins.
Adam's prediction: Texans, 28-14
James's prediction: Miami over Houston, 30-20.
Fantasy Love: Andre Johnson
Fantasy Hate: Chad Pennington

Jaguars @ Broncos (-3.5)
James: The Jags and their two tiered running game find themselves in the Mile High city, and their ability to switch between Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor is certainly a key factor in exploiting the Broncos defense. David Garrard shouldn't have a tough time picking apart Denver's defense, and if the Jaguars can keep the Bronc's offense off the field, they stand a chance in this game. However, Jay Cutler and Brandon Marshall don't need a lot of time to make some points. This season's most dangerous quarterback and wide receiver combo will certainly have a tough time scoring if they get too one dimensional with Eddie Royal out. The best part about the Broncos offense is that they have three running backs who can hold their own. Selvin Young has been getting the big yards for the team while Michael Pittman is a beast in short yardage situations. Andre Hall is a wild card who will return a kick for a touchdown by the end of the season. Expect a close matchup this week.
James' pick: Jacksonville wins 21-20

Adam's pick: Jaguars take it, 31-28
Fantasy Love: Maurice Jones-Drew(Ed. note - Fingers crossed! He's been awful this year.)
Fantasy Hate: Eddie Royal

Cowboys @ Cardinals (+3.5)
James: The Cowboys started off this season looking hot, but they quickly found themselves grounded after losing to Washington. There was drama with T.O. not getting enough looks from Romo, and now Pacman "Adam" Jones is once again finding himself in trouble. A lot of problems with the team can probably stem back to the fact that Wade Phillips is a players' coach, and not a disciplinarian. Right now Phillips has the respect of his team, but if he doesn't be careful, they all might just take advantage of him and walk all over his authority. If the Cowboys want to be a team with a chance at the Super Bowl, they need to tighten up on defense and eliminate any clubhouse drama. Jason Witten has really been their workhorse this season, but while he can run routes and block pass rushers better than most receivers and linemen, those other 10 guys with him need to live up to their potential. Arizona officially knocked Buffalo out of contention for going 19-0 last week, and aside from their awful outing against the Jets, look like a solid team. There's kinks to work out, Anquan Boldin is hurt, and Kurt Warner is the next oldest person in the NFL after Al Davis, but this is a team full of surprises.
James' pick: Arizona wins 34-31

Adam's pick: Dallas wins, 30-27
Fantasy Love: Felix Jones
Fantasy Hate: Steve Breaston

Eagles @ 49ers (+4.5)
Adam: This is one of those games that gives me a weird feeling. I know the Eagles SHOULD be better than the Niners... but they don't have Brian Westbrook and recently lost to the Bears and Redskins. That either means those two teams are a lot better than we expected (likely) or that the Eagles just can't stay afloat with so many key players injured (even more likely). Meanwhile San Fran, though not looking like contenders, are playing much more entertaining football than they have in years past, and JT O'Sullivan and Frank Gore have the most to do with that. When it comes down to it though, Philly seems a lot less likely to lose 3 straight than San Fran.
Adam's prediction: Eagles, 34-24
James's prediction: Philly, 38-30
Fantasy Love: Donovan McNabb
Fantasy Hate: Isaac Bruce

Packers @ Seahawks (+4)
Adam: At last update, Matt Hasselbeck was not cleared to play in this game, which means Charlie Frye will get the start. Couple that with Deion Branch being out again, and this game gets a lot easier to call. Aaron Rodgers didn't practice all week on his ailing shoulder, but that's probably for the best. I also see this as a game where Ryan Grant finally breaks out. He missed a lot of camp, and is just starting to get up to speed now. Also, Charlie frickin Frye. I'm starting to see why Seattle is the source of almost all depressing rock music.
Adam's prediction: Packers win, 28-13
James's prediction: Green Bay over Seattle, 13-10
Fantasy Love: Ryan Grant
Fantasy Hate: Julius Jones

Patriots @ Chargers (-1.5)
Adam: What was supposed to be a playoff preview between two of the best teams in the AFC has turned into a matchup of two teams limping around after recently getting humbled by the Miami Dolphins. Tomlinson usually loves playing the Pats, but he's not been his normal self all year with the toe injury. Matty Cassel finally got the green light to go deep last week, which I've been asking for all year, and he ends up connecting with Moss on a play that keeps Moss on-board with the team. Seriously, if they didn't connect big in that game, I felt Randy was mentally checked out for the rest of the season. Go back and look at his body language, it was REALLY close. Also, Laurence Maroney is questionable and I've benched him on every fantasy team... which clearly means he'll have an unbelievable game. So with both of these teams struggling, I let the coin flip in favor of my blatant homerism.
Adam's prediction: Patriots, 28-27
Jame's prediction: Chargers, 17-13
Fantasy Love: Matt Cassel
Fantasy Hate: Ladanian Tomlinson

Giants @ Browns (+8)
James: I just ordered a shirt that says UNB
ELIEVABLE. I was promptly made fun of by every single person I told, but if it comes in by Monday night, you can rest assured I'll be wearing it out. The Giants have shut every single person up this season. They have, without a doubt, the best all around team in the NFL, and are looking to tie Tennessee's NFL best record at 5-0. Cleveland was a team full of promise prior to the season, and now they can only scratch their heads and wonder what happened. Jamal Lewis, Derek Anderson, and Braylon Edwards were expected to be a lethal combination, but they've been fairly easy to stop. Right now Derek Anderson is playing for his job. Brady Quinn is chomping at the bit to get an NFL start, and there is no bigger stage for this controversy to play out than on Monday Night Football against the best team in the NFL. We're likely to see one of three things. The first is Derek Anderson finding his game and looking like he did in 2007. The Browns pull off an upset, or at least keep it very close, and come out of the game with some confidence. The second is like the first, except Anderson sucks, Brady Quinn gets called to bat and comes through, and almost brings the team back from 4 touchdowns behind. The third is that Anderson stinks, the Browns defense stinks, and the Giants run all over them to 5-0. If this game wasn't on Monday Night Football, I wouldn't think the Browns would have a chance, but anything can happen on Monday Night.
James' pick: New York wins 41 - 13

Adam's pick: Giants win, 34-21
Fantasy Love: Eli Manning
Fantasy Hate: Jamal Lewis