Friday, November 14, 2008
Wednesday, November 12, 2008
Checking in with Leon and the C's
Tonight marks the first time that the Celtics will face the Hawks since their riveting/blood pressure raising first round playoff series last season. Sooooo much trash talk in a series that went down to the wire. Don't think Paul Pierce has forgotten when brash Al Horford got all up in his grill-piece. Dude was a rookie! Flash forward to our current situation. Boston is 7-1 right now coming off huge wins against Detroit and Toronto. And check this: Atlanta has a better record. They are 6-0. They even beat the Hornets at New Orleans. However, they just played a close game in Chicago last night and are without "The Box Score Superstar" Josh Smith. And all of the Celtics' wins in the aforementioned 7 game clash, were at the TD Banknorth Garden. Should be a good one. Look for more of the same where Atlanta's youth and athleticism keeps them in the game until Boston's skill and experience allows them to pull away in the fourth. Plus, the Hawks' bench is pretty slim.
Meanwhile, Leon's last two games haven't been eye popping statistically, but not everyone can score 41 points every night. One quirky thing to note: Monday's game against the Raptors was the first game where Leon didn't have at least 3 personal fouls. He actually had none. Hey, just throwin' it out there... Contractually (not really) we have to look at his PT. In the eight games so far, there have only been two that Leon hasn't played at least 17 minutes. Doc has been sticking with a nine man rotation of the usual starters complimented by Leon(17.5 mpg), Tony Allen(20.9 mpg), Eddie House(16.8 mpg) and Big Baby(16.5 mpg). I can't get too mad at that but I think as the season goes on, Leon's minutes will go up simply due to the wear and tear of an 82 game season on a guy who just played in his 1000th game.
Fun NBA Fact: The Western Conference has more teams under .500 (8) than the Eastern Conference (6).
Meanwhile, Leon's last two games haven't been eye popping statistically, but not everyone can score 41 points every night. One quirky thing to note: Monday's game against the Raptors was the first game where Leon didn't have at least 3 personal fouls. He actually had none. Hey, just throwin' it out there... Contractually (not really) we have to look at his PT. In the eight games so far, there have only been two that Leon hasn't played at least 17 minutes. Doc has been sticking with a nine man rotation of the usual starters complimented by Leon(17.5 mpg), Tony Allen(20.9 mpg), Eddie House(16.8 mpg) and Big Baby(16.5 mpg). I can't get too mad at that but I think as the season goes on, Leon's minutes will go up simply due to the wear and tear of an 82 game season on a guy who just played in his 1000th game.
Fun NBA Fact: The Western Conference has more teams under .500 (8) than the Eastern Conference (6).
0-16?
The 16-0 chatter started around this time last year for the Pats, and the 0-16 talk began for the Rams and the Dolphins (until the Rams disappointed us all and finally won a game, followed eventually by Miami). After having lost their last winnable game of the season, not only am I amazed no one's started talking 0-16 as a possibility yet, but I can't believe that no one considers the Lions going 0-16 to be anything more than a matter of formality. Let's look at their upcoming schedule. See if you can spot a trend.
Carolina
Tampa Bay
Tennessee
Minnesota
Indianapolis
New Orleans
Green Bay
The trend is, these teams are all very good and much better than the Lions.
Also, you may notice that my team colors are spot on today. I had some extra time on my hands and took the precise color codes straight from every NFL teams' logo. Now I'm like a real professional web logger!
Back to Detroit. I mean, how bad are they? Right now, kids in Detroit are looking up at their old Lions posters and thinking about the good old days.
Joey Harrington: Never Forget
Even Captain Crusader Kitna seems like a better option than what they've got at this point. If you have a UConn quarterback fighting for reps with Daunte Culpepper, your team has more than just issues. Well, if this was 2001, you might have a fighting chance, but 2008 Culpepper is slightly different.
The Lions have made 3 of their 9 losses close. Those were against the Bears, Texans, and Vikings. Not the same caliber as the Panthers, Bucs, and Titans. I can almost guarantee you 100% the Lions will be 0-12 after their next three game stretch. I don't know, maybe Thanksgiving we'll all get a special afternoon surprise with the upset of the season as the Lions defeat the Titans, but I think John Madden is more likely to keep his vow to never have another Turducken than for that to happen.
After those three losses come their four "easy" games. Minnesota barely scraped by them last time they played, and if all calls in football were 100% correct all the time, Detroit would have won it, but the Vikings played their absolute worst game of the football season. If you saw the second half of the Colts/Vikings game, think about how bad Minnesota played. Now, have them be even worse, but for an entire 60 minutes. Brad Childress did absolutely EVERYTHING in his power to give Detroit the win, but they just couldn't do it. It was like when you're trying to run a race with your 5 year old cousin/nephew/niece/son/daughter/friend's son/friend's daughter/kid on the playground that has a restraining order against you, and you keep stumbling on purpose or running into things. You exaggerate a fall and let them get way ahead of you, but they're slow and dumb as hell, so they somehow still manage to lose? That's what that game was like.
These last four games of the season are most likely must-wins for these teams if they're still in the playoff race at that point. I don't think anyone's going to be resting their starters and I don't think anyone's going to give Detroit an inch. There aren't any games where the Lions can come in and sneak up on someone. When you're 5-4 and 4-5, there's no such thing as a trap game. Every game from here on out is a must-win, and I can guarantee you every team the Lions go against will be scheming against them as if they were the 2007 Patriots.
Maybe the Lions will sneak in a win. Maybe the Saints go on a 3 game losing streak, find themselves out of playoff contention at 4-8, and give up on the season. It could happen. Drew Brees gets injured, their entire group of defensive backs tests positive for steroids and are suspended, and Reggie Bush gets lost in the black hole that is Kim Kardashian's lady parts. Maybe Jesus comes down and blesses Dan Orlovsky's arm so that he throws nothing but touchdowns (Kitna would be soooooo jeal). I don't know, it could happen. The thing is, I just don't see it happening, and I am calling the Lions to go winless for 2008. That elusive first win didn't happen with Kitna, and it won't happen with anyone else they throw in there.
Carolina
Tampa Bay
Tennessee
Minnesota
Indianapolis
New Orleans
Green Bay
The trend is, these teams are all very good and much better than the Lions.
Also, you may notice that my team colors are spot on today. I had some extra time on my hands and took the precise color codes straight from every NFL teams' logo. Now I'm like a real professional web logger!
Back to Detroit. I mean, how bad are they? Right now, kids in Detroit are looking up at their old Lions posters and thinking about the good old days.
Joey Harrington: Never ForgetEven Captain Crusader Kitna seems like a better option than what they've got at this point. If you have a UConn quarterback fighting for reps with Daunte Culpepper, your team has more than just issues. Well, if this was 2001, you might have a fighting chance, but 2008 Culpepper is slightly different.
The Lions have made 3 of their 9 losses close. Those were against the Bears, Texans, and Vikings. Not the same caliber as the Panthers, Bucs, and Titans. I can almost guarantee you 100% the Lions will be 0-12 after their next three game stretch. I don't know, maybe Thanksgiving we'll all get a special afternoon surprise with the upset of the season as the Lions defeat the Titans, but I think John Madden is more likely to keep his vow to never have another Turducken than for that to happen.
After those three losses come their four "easy" games. Minnesota barely scraped by them last time they played, and if all calls in football were 100% correct all the time, Detroit would have won it, but the Vikings played their absolute worst game of the football season. If you saw the second half of the Colts/Vikings game, think about how bad Minnesota played. Now, have them be even worse, but for an entire 60 minutes. Brad Childress did absolutely EVERYTHING in his power to give Detroit the win, but they just couldn't do it. It was like when you're trying to run a race with your 5 year old cousin/nephew/niece/son/daughter/friend's son/friend's daughter/kid on the playground that has a restraining order against you, and you keep stumbling on purpose or running into things. You exaggerate a fall and let them get way ahead of you, but they're slow and dumb as hell, so they somehow still manage to lose? That's what that game was like.
These last four games of the season are most likely must-wins for these teams if they're still in the playoff race at that point. I don't think anyone's going to be resting their starters and I don't think anyone's going to give Detroit an inch. There aren't any games where the Lions can come in and sneak up on someone. When you're 5-4 and 4-5, there's no such thing as a trap game. Every game from here on out is a must-win, and I can guarantee you every team the Lions go against will be scheming against them as if they were the 2007 Patriots.
Maybe the Lions will sneak in a win. Maybe the Saints go on a 3 game losing streak, find themselves out of playoff contention at 4-8, and give up on the season. It could happen. Drew Brees gets injured, their entire group of defensive backs tests positive for steroids and are suspended, and Reggie Bush gets lost in the black hole that is Kim Kardashian's lady parts. Maybe Jesus comes down and blesses Dan Orlovsky's arm so that he throws nothing but touchdowns (Kitna would be soooooo jeal). I don't know, it could happen. The thing is, I just don't see it happening, and I am calling the Lions to go winless for 2008. That elusive first win didn't happen with Kitna, and it won't happen with anyone else they throw in there.
Monday, November 10, 2008
The Walking Wounded
By October 20th, the New England Patriots had their starting quarterback, starting running back and starting safety all injured and out for the rest of the season. Today it is being reported that starting LB and all around ass kicker Adelius Thomas has a broken forearm and will join Brady, Maroney and Harrison on the IR. And this is in addition to Sammy Morris and Lamont Jordon missing significant time. Maybe I don't follow every team's injuries as closely as I do New England's, but it seems EVERY damn year that multiple key players miss huge chunks of the season. I know football is a grueling sport but yikes. Thanks to the emergence of "The Lawfirm" BenJarvus Jeremy Green-Ellis, the Pats still somehow have a semblance of a running game. Cassel is settling in nicely and they are tied for the division lead with a 6-3 record. New England has a HUUUUGE game this Thursday against the Jets at Gillette. And just for S's and G's, New York has just signed old friend Ty Law and will trot him against his former team. This division is damn close but I think in a different way than people expected when Brady went down. I personally thought it was going to be a battle of mediocrity but all four teams are still very much in the running with every team have an above .500 record (see James' AFC post). One thing is for sure (besides my undying hatred for Brett Favre and the fact that Jerricho Cotchery caught 1 friggin pass in a game where his team scored 47 points), the Patriots cannot afford anymore huge injuries if they want to make the playoffs. Belichick is good, but he can only do so much with backups and backups to backups.
In an unrelated note, I wanted to quickly touch on the likely trade of Matt Holliday to the Oakland A's. He'll only be there for possibly less than one year but his huge OBP will fit right in with Billy Beane's team concept. Leaving Colorado will negatively impact his offensive stats, but not by leaps and bounds. Oakland's offense has really been terrible these past couple of seasons so it will be nice for their fans to have a legit star on the team. This is the first big move of the offseason and will only get baseball fans salivating for more deals and more signings. And does this move put more pressure on the Angels to lock up Teixeira?
Hello, January! NFC Version
I should probably write myself a note that if I'm going to start a special post such as this, I should finish it before Sunday and everything gets changed. Let's start this from scratch...
Unlike the AFC, no one has a lock on their division in the NFC. As good as the New York Giants are, and as bad as the NFC West is sans Arizona, no one is even looking at a magic number yet. For the Giants, they need 5 of their next 7 to guarantee the division. Arizona's looking at 5 of the next 8, but a win tonight would make that 4 of 7. Still no definite title in sight for Warner and them fellers.
If you thought the AFC was a clusterfudge, just look at the NFC. For the first time since...what did the announcers say, 1960 or something?, a team with a winning record is in last place at this point in the season. In fact, say the Saints got put up against a non-division team this week and won. We'd then have 2 last place teams with better than .500 records. When you're currently one of the favorites for MVP and your team is in last place, you know you're Drew Brees and it's the 2008-09 NFL season.
Additionally, I'll have to update the AFC playoff look later this week now that my entire Steelers theory is out the window.
Just to make things easier, let's pretend the Giants win out and no one catches the Cardinals. I assume the latter will definitely happen (which means the Niners will win tonight and I'll be once again pulling my hair out), but the Giants still have a lot of work to do.
Anyway...this leaves us 2 divisions up for grabs and two wild card slots.
At 7-2 we've got Carolina. Arguably the 3rd best team in the NFL right now, they're in the most surprising, quiet, competitive, and funnest division in the NFL. Oh yeah, and underrated. The NFC South still doesn't get talked about or cared about. It'll be tough to stay under the radar when you've got three teams in the playoffs, but that division seems to be ok where it is right now.
At 6-3 lies Washington, Tampa Bay, Atlanta, and if they win tonight, Arizona.
5-4 we have Chicago, Minnesota, Dallas, and Philadelphia. Half North and half East.
At 4-5, Green Bay and New Orleans have played far too well to drop below .500, but it happened.
The NFC North can go to the Bears, Vikings, or Packers. Neither team is a long shot, and even if the Packers lose next week, I still wouldn't count them out. They're too dangerous when they play smart football.
The NFC South has Carolina trying to pull away from the pack, but there's still a ways to go.
Last year, we knew that 4 or 5 teams were amazing, and there were a bunch of mediocre teams fighting for wild card spots. This year, either teams are getting better and the talent's getting spread out, or teams are just getting worse. I think the former is correct here.
There are, count them, THREE teams with next to no shot of the playoffs. Detroit, St. Louis, and Seattle. If Arizona wins, add San Fran to the list. Still. Everyone but those four teams and the three in the AFC (Oakland, Kansas City, Cincy) has their fans cheering for them to just get a streak going and make the playoffs. Anyone can do it. Even some of the seven I just mentioned.
Now, for my Giants theory. When you look at the rest of their schedule, their two game lead on the division seems a lot less comfortable. Not a single team under .500. Minnesota and Baltimore are their 'easy' games. They have Dallas IN Dallas, with Tony Romo most likely. Washington IN Washington. And they get to face the rival for best team in the NFC, Carolina. Not easy. The Giants will tell you it's the exact same thing as if they were playing Cincy, Detroit, Kansas City, Oakland, and Seattle, but it's definitely not. The Giants know every game will be a fight, and they need to keep their guys healthy for the playoffs. It'll be interesting down the stretch to see how the guys who love to collapse in the second half and barely crawl into the playoffs handle being the favorite.
If Matt Ryan doesn't win Rookie of the Year...I will quit football-watching. He came out swinging at the beginning of the season and keeps getting better every game. He's assumed the role of leader on a horrendous Falcons team and you can't ever really give him enough credit for how he's turned this offense around. His touchdown numbers aren't Manning-like yet (Ryan has 11, although a solid second half could have him up there with Manning's rookie number of 26), but he has a great passer rating and is completing nearly 60% of his passes. The entire Atlanta offense looks so confident with him at the helm. Remember the frightened "what the hell is going on with this play?" look you'd see from guys like Roddy White last season? White is finally able to be the type of receiver he wants to be with a guy who can hit him, and he's putting up some of the most solid and consistent numbers in the NFL right now. Matt Ryan. ROTY.
Ok, now to go bask in my Colts glory.
Unlike the AFC, no one has a lock on their division in the NFC. As good as the New York Giants are, and as bad as the NFC West is sans Arizona, no one is even looking at a magic number yet. For the Giants, they need 5 of their next 7 to guarantee the division. Arizona's looking at 5 of the next 8, but a win tonight would make that 4 of 7. Still no definite title in sight for Warner and them fellers.
If you thought the AFC was a clusterfudge, just look at the NFC. For the first time since...what did the announcers say, 1960 or something?, a team with a winning record is in last place at this point in the season. In fact, say the Saints got put up against a non-division team this week and won. We'd then have 2 last place teams with better than .500 records. When you're currently one of the favorites for MVP and your team is in last place, you know you're Drew Brees and it's the 2008-09 NFL season.
Additionally, I'll have to update the AFC playoff look later this week now that my entire Steelers theory is out the window.
Just to make things easier, let's pretend the Giants win out and no one catches the Cardinals. I assume the latter will definitely happen (which means the Niners will win tonight and I'll be once again pulling my hair out), but the Giants still have a lot of work to do.
Anyway...this leaves us 2 divisions up for grabs and two wild card slots.
At 7-2 we've got Carolina. Arguably the 3rd best team in the NFL right now, they're in the most surprising, quiet, competitive, and funnest division in the NFL. Oh yeah, and underrated. The NFC South still doesn't get talked about or cared about. It'll be tough to stay under the radar when you've got three teams in the playoffs, but that division seems to be ok where it is right now.
At 6-3 lies Washington, Tampa Bay, Atlanta, and if they win tonight, Arizona.
5-4 we have Chicago, Minnesota, Dallas, and Philadelphia. Half North and half East.
At 4-5, Green Bay and New Orleans have played far too well to drop below .500, but it happened.
The NFC North can go to the Bears, Vikings, or Packers. Neither team is a long shot, and even if the Packers lose next week, I still wouldn't count them out. They're too dangerous when they play smart football.
The NFC South has Carolina trying to pull away from the pack, but there's still a ways to go.
Last year, we knew that 4 or 5 teams were amazing, and there were a bunch of mediocre teams fighting for wild card spots. This year, either teams are getting better and the talent's getting spread out, or teams are just getting worse. I think the former is correct here.
There are, count them, THREE teams with next to no shot of the playoffs. Detroit, St. Louis, and Seattle. If Arizona wins, add San Fran to the list. Still. Everyone but those four teams and the three in the AFC (Oakland, Kansas City, Cincy) has their fans cheering for them to just get a streak going and make the playoffs. Anyone can do it. Even some of the seven I just mentioned.
Now, for my Giants theory. When you look at the rest of their schedule, their two game lead on the division seems a lot less comfortable. Not a single team under .500. Minnesota and Baltimore are their 'easy' games. They have Dallas IN Dallas, with Tony Romo most likely. Washington IN Washington. And they get to face the rival for best team in the NFC, Carolina. Not easy. The Giants will tell you it's the exact same thing as if they were playing Cincy, Detroit, Kansas City, Oakland, and Seattle, but it's definitely not. The Giants know every game will be a fight, and they need to keep their guys healthy for the playoffs. It'll be interesting down the stretch to see how the guys who love to collapse in the second half and barely crawl into the playoffs handle being the favorite.
If Matt Ryan doesn't win Rookie of the Year...I will quit football-watching. He came out swinging at the beginning of the season and keeps getting better every game. He's assumed the role of leader on a horrendous Falcons team and you can't ever really give him enough credit for how he's turned this offense around. His touchdown numbers aren't Manning-like yet (Ryan has 11, although a solid second half could have him up there with Manning's rookie number of 26), but he has a great passer rating and is completing nearly 60% of his passes. The entire Atlanta offense looks so confident with him at the helm. Remember the frightened "what the hell is going on with this play?" look you'd see from guys like Roddy White last season? White is finally able to be the type of receiver he wants to be with a guy who can hit him, and he's putting up some of the most solid and consistent numbers in the NFL right now. Matt Ryan. ROTY.
Ok, now to go bask in my Colts glory.
Sunday, November 9, 2008
Week 10 Picks
Hey everybody. It's been a rough weekend involving a Party Bus, sleeping in a bathtub, a broken iPhone, and my girlfriend's lost purse. Let's just power through this...(Ed. note - I was not on said party bus and feel slighted. Sad face.)
By the way, I'm officially suspending Fantasy Love/Hate until I have a fantasy team over .500
Saints @ Falcons (-2)
Adam: Wow, who would have thought that this late in the season we'd have the Atlanta Falcons favored over the New Orleans Saints? I don't know if I fully agree with that, but apparently enough gamblers do to make the line swing that way. One thing's for sure... everybody is impressed with Matt Ryan is doing. And with him, Roddy White, and Michael Turner, this team has the cornerstones of a very sold offense for years to come. The Saints have alternated wins and losses for their last 5 games, so they should be due to lose this one... but after the bye week and a big win over San Diego in their last game, I don't see it happening. This Falcons defense just isn't quite good enough to keep up with the Saints, and I see Colston having his first big game of the year.
Adam's Pick: New Orleans, 38-27
James' Pick: Atlanta wins, 27-20
Titans @ Bears (+2)
Adam: Oh man, Sex Cannon, back in action. I see a beautiful scenario playing out, where Grossman goes off for, like, 5 TDs against the best defense in the NFL, and then Orton gets healthy, and you see Lovie Smith staring glossy-eyed into the camera while trying to explain who is starting QB is going to be next week. Oh my god, please let this happen.
Adam's Pick: Chicago wins, 35-17
James' Pick: Chicago over Tennesse (fingers crossed) 18-15
Jaguars @ Lions (+4.5)
Adam: If you thought I was excited about Sexy Rexy.... you have no idea how pumped I am to see Daunte Culpepper back in the NFC North. And you can't really blame the Lions. With Dan Orlovsky struggling so much, and the unknown quality of Drew Stanton the only other option, it can't make your season any worse to take a flier on Daunte. Although, the second year on the deal did confuse me a bit. Meanwhile the Jaguars are struggling just as much as I expected them to. Everybody was convinced they'd make the leap into a premier team this year, but I just didn't see it. I still think they'll win today though, because they do have talent and are too proud to lose to this team.
Adam's Pick: Jaguars win, 24-13
James' Pick: Jacksonville beats Detroit, 21-9
Seahawks @ Dolphins (-6.5)
James: And the third biggest favorite during this week's games is...*drum roll*...the Miami Dolphins? When you think about it, it makes sense. It shouldn't make sense, but it does. The Tampa Bay Rays have put on the pressure for the Fins to go from worst to first, and if they can bring a solid game on Sunday, they'll be within striking distance of the Patriots/Bills and possibly Jets. Chad Pennington has been a great fit in this offense; a cerebral quarterback who can do a lot of things to help win games except hurl the ball downfield. As the Jets have seen, throwing the ball downfield doesn't always have great results. If the Seahawks can't win this game, their chances of catching Arizona are slim to none. If Seattle can get the ground game going with Julius Jones and win some clock time, they have a legitimate chance of coming away with this. If they buy into any of the Dolphins trickery and tomfoolery, it'll be a blowout by the 2nd quarter.
Adam's Pick: Dolphins take it, 23-17
James' Pick: Dolphins win, 34-10
Packers @ Vikings (-2)
James: You always know what you're getting into when the Packers and Vikes go at it, and this contest will be no different. Green Bay has to be sore over coming so close to defeating Tennessee last week, and Minnesota is always a tough, physical matchup for anyone. Mix in the bad blood these teams have, and I'm sure we'll see two or three hits that will make you cringe. If either team is going to win this game, they're going to have to find ways to score that might be outside of their comfort zone. Minnesota will rely on more than Adrian Peterson, and Aaron Rodgers will be spreading his passes out. The emergence of Brandon Jackson in their running game may help their cause, but this game, with its divisional implications, is going to be a battle either way.
Adam's Pick: Packers win, 27-24
James' Pick: Brad Childress almost blows it, but Minnesota hangs on 24-18 Bills @ Patriots (-2)
Adam: I'm actually gearing up to head out to this game right now, and I'll be bringing my girlfriend along for her first NFL game. Some guys have a strict no-chicks at games rule, but I think that's dumb. Ive always thought my father was a genius for getting my mom to like football... it's something she gets excited about instead of nagging him when he watches it. This should be a great game to introduce her with, as the winner gets a leg up on the AFC East race. Interesting note: as well as the Bills have played, they still have not beaten a team in their division. I'll be screaming my head off hoping that trend stays.
Adam's Pick: Patriots win, 31-20
James' Pick: New England ends up in their proper place (grr) 24-16
Rams @ Jets (-5)
Adam: I feel extremely confident that the Rams will win this game. For a few reasons. All of them selfish wishful thinking. Reason #1: The Patriots will be alone in 1st place in the division if this happens. Reason #2: I'm starting Kenneth Darby in one fantasy league. Which is probably a horrible sign. But... maybe not? Reason #3: The Jets suck and I hate them. There you go, hard hitting analysis.
Adam's Pick: Rams win, 21-17
James' Pick: Jets stay in first place with a win over St. Louis, 37-24
Ravens @ Texans (EVEN)
James: There are many very feasible scenarios in which this could be a matchup of two playoff teams, as my "Hello January!" column showed. Houston's bringing a lot of momentum into this game, while the Ravens seem to be easing in to their offense and putting less pressure on the defense. For the Texans, any game is a must-win, but a victory at home could be the very thing to catapult them into a wild card spot in January. Houston's strengths are Baltimore's weaknesses, so the winner will be whoever can overcome those weaknesses more. Seems obvious, but there is no room for error by either team this game. Can Houston stop the run and keep their offense on the field, or will the Ravens score big early and embarrass the Texans at Reliant Stadium?
Adam's Pick: Texans over Ravens 19-13
James' pick: Houston wins 28-18
Panthers @ Raiders (+7.5)
Adam: The Raiders are an absolute mess. They just cut DeAngelo Hall, they've already fired their head coach, their big WR signing of the offseason couldn't have been more insane or more of a bust. It's amazing how much a team can resemble their owner. The Panthers should be ashamed of themselves if they don't take this one in a rout.
Adam's Pick: Panthers win, 34-12
James' pick: Oakland stuns Carolina 17-14
Colts @ Steelers (-5)
James: Ben Roethlisberger or not, the Steelers are GOOD. I thought the initial reactions to them this season would quickly prove to be wrong as teams found their weaknesses. With Pittsburgh this season, there aren't too many weaknesses. They can hurt you with the run, they can hurt you with the pass, and then if you can stop either of those, you need to score against their rock solid defense. The fan in me is saying "this game is winnable", which it is. No game is unwinnable in the NFL. However, the Colts' chances are slim. They finally someone over 265 lbs at defensive tackle in Antonio Johnson, but he probably won't be ready to play for this matchup. This game is going to be won or lost by Peyton Manning. The defense will be pushed around, that's a given, but they'll need to not miss tackles, get to the ball quickly, and not give a 10 yard cushion (much like their defensive plan against the Patriots). Their biggest strategy on defense, however, is to win ball control. Peyton Manning needs to be a master at the helm for the Colts to win. If we're seeing a lot of 5-6 yard checkdowns to Clark, Gonzalez, and Rhodes/Addai, then we can know that the Colts are playing this game correctly. Even with doing everything perfectly, the sheer physicality of this game is going to make it a tough one to win.
Adam's Pick: Steelers win, 31-27
James the fan's prediction: Indianapolis wins 34-30
James the realist's prediction: Pittsburgh wins 34-18
Cheifs @ Chargers (-4)
James: Nooooo way the Chiefs can upset the Chargers a second time. ...Right? Well, it's highly unlikely, but very possible. This is entirely up to the Chargers. This is the trap game of the year, with Pittsburgh coming up next for San Diego. The Chargers should expect to win this game, but they could very well be thinking about building momentum with a win against the Steelers next week. If the Bolts don't have their head focused on this game, Kansas City could very well take advantage of that and have another strange dominating performance like their first meeting. Jamaal Charles and Tyler Thigpen have a lot more things to like right now than Larry Johnson and Damon Huard/Brodie Croyle. If the Chiefs can stick with San Diego through the first half, they have a great shot to take this game. We'll see what San Diego can bring with an extra week of rest.
Adam's Pick: Chargers win, 34-10
James' pick: Evil Tony Dungy brings the Chiefs to win the season series, 24-13
Giants @ Eagles (+2)
James: My friend Bob is an Eagles fan. He fits into "dudes from New Jersey who associate with Philadelphia teams" category. He walked the entire World Series parade in Philadelphia dressed in a gorilla outfit while drinking Sparks the entire time. Therefore, Bob is the kind of guy you hate to root against. However, this weekend I hope Eli Manning breaks his heart. Every divisional game for the Giants is a statement game, and the statement gets louder each time. Defensive players have nightmares that they keep having to try and tackle Brandon Jacobs one-on-one and wake up just as they're being flattened. Their defense is as good if not better than Pittsburgh's. I think this is the best team in the NFL, and as soon as Tennessee loses, most power rankings should show that. I don't think McNabb and his boys have enough to take the G-Men on.
Adam's Pick: Eagles win, 24-21
James' pick: Giants win in an unbELIable fashion, 31-21
49ers @ Cardinals
James: I can guarantee you the guys on the Niners do not want to see Mike Singletary drop his pants at halftime again. Therefore, we should see some effort from these guys that's been missing these past few weeks. I had a lot of hope for San Francisco prior to the season starting, and I think Singletary could very well turn this season around for them. I don't see them in the playoffs, but a few wins here and a few wins there could put them at 7-9 or 8-8. Arizona has a great opportunity here to put some more space between them and the rest of their division. The Cards brilliant receiving corps and Tim Hightower, maybe the steal of the draft (5th round, overall 149), has reignited the Cards' running game. If the 49ers want a shot at winning, they're going to have to listen to Coach Singletary and play disciplined football. They've had a bye week to prepare for this game, and Shaun Hill may be the answer at quarterback. He also might not be the answer, but it's tough to tell how good a quarterback is when they get sacked more than they complete a pass.
Adam's Pick: Cards win, 48-12
James' pick: San Francisco stuns Arizona 18-13
By the way, I'm officially suspending Fantasy Love/Hate until I have a fantasy team over .500
Saints @ Falcons (-2)
Adam: Wow, who would have thought that this late in the season we'd have the Atlanta Falcons favored over the New Orleans Saints? I don't know if I fully agree with that, but apparently enough gamblers do to make the line swing that way. One thing's for sure... everybody is impressed with Matt Ryan is doing. And with him, Roddy White, and Michael Turner, this team has the cornerstones of a very sold offense for years to come. The Saints have alternated wins and losses for their last 5 games, so they should be due to lose this one... but after the bye week and a big win over San Diego in their last game, I don't see it happening. This Falcons defense just isn't quite good enough to keep up with the Saints, and I see Colston having his first big game of the year.
Adam's Pick: New Orleans, 38-27
James' Pick: Atlanta wins, 27-20
Titans @ Bears (+2)
Adam: Oh man, Sex Cannon, back in action. I see a beautiful scenario playing out, where Grossman goes off for, like, 5 TDs against the best defense in the NFL, and then Orton gets healthy, and you see Lovie Smith staring glossy-eyed into the camera while trying to explain who is starting QB is going to be next week. Oh my god, please let this happen.
Adam's Pick: Chicago wins, 35-17
James' Pick: Chicago over Tennesse (fingers crossed) 18-15
Jaguars @ Lions (+4.5)
Adam: If you thought I was excited about Sexy Rexy.... you have no idea how pumped I am to see Daunte Culpepper back in the NFC North. And you can't really blame the Lions. With Dan Orlovsky struggling so much, and the unknown quality of Drew Stanton the only other option, it can't make your season any worse to take a flier on Daunte. Although, the second year on the deal did confuse me a bit. Meanwhile the Jaguars are struggling just as much as I expected them to. Everybody was convinced they'd make the leap into a premier team this year, but I just didn't see it. I still think they'll win today though, because they do have talent and are too proud to lose to this team.
Adam's Pick: Jaguars win, 24-13
James' Pick: Jacksonville beats Detroit, 21-9
Seahawks @ Dolphins (-6.5)
James: And the third biggest favorite during this week's games is...*drum roll*...the Miami Dolphins? When you think about it, it makes sense. It shouldn't make sense, but it does. The Tampa Bay Rays have put on the pressure for the Fins to go from worst to first, and if they can bring a solid game on Sunday, they'll be within striking distance of the Patriots/Bills and possibly Jets. Chad Pennington has been a great fit in this offense; a cerebral quarterback who can do a lot of things to help win games except hurl the ball downfield. As the Jets have seen, throwing the ball downfield doesn't always have great results. If the Seahawks can't win this game, their chances of catching Arizona are slim to none. If Seattle can get the ground game going with Julius Jones and win some clock time, they have a legitimate chance of coming away with this. If they buy into any of the Dolphins trickery and tomfoolery, it'll be a blowout by the 2nd quarter.
Adam's Pick: Dolphins take it, 23-17
James' Pick: Dolphins win, 34-10
Packers @ Vikings (-2)
James: You always know what you're getting into when the Packers and Vikes go at it, and this contest will be no different. Green Bay has to be sore over coming so close to defeating Tennessee last week, and Minnesota is always a tough, physical matchup for anyone. Mix in the bad blood these teams have, and I'm sure we'll see two or three hits that will make you cringe. If either team is going to win this game, they're going to have to find ways to score that might be outside of their comfort zone. Minnesota will rely on more than Adrian Peterson, and Aaron Rodgers will be spreading his passes out. The emergence of Brandon Jackson in their running game may help their cause, but this game, with its divisional implications, is going to be a battle either way.
Adam's Pick: Packers win, 27-24
James' Pick: Brad Childress almost blows it, but Minnesota hangs on 24-18 Bills @ Patriots (-2)
Adam: I'm actually gearing up to head out to this game right now, and I'll be bringing my girlfriend along for her first NFL game. Some guys have a strict no-chicks at games rule, but I think that's dumb. Ive always thought my father was a genius for getting my mom to like football... it's something she gets excited about instead of nagging him when he watches it. This should be a great game to introduce her with, as the winner gets a leg up on the AFC East race. Interesting note: as well as the Bills have played, they still have not beaten a team in their division. I'll be screaming my head off hoping that trend stays.
Adam's Pick: Patriots win, 31-20
James' Pick: New England ends up in their proper place (grr) 24-16
Rams @ Jets (-5)
Adam: I feel extremely confident that the Rams will win this game. For a few reasons. All of them selfish wishful thinking. Reason #1: The Patriots will be alone in 1st place in the division if this happens. Reason #2: I'm starting Kenneth Darby in one fantasy league. Which is probably a horrible sign. But... maybe not? Reason #3: The Jets suck and I hate them. There you go, hard hitting analysis.
Adam's Pick: Rams win, 21-17
James' Pick: Jets stay in first place with a win over St. Louis, 37-24
Ravens @ Texans (EVEN)
James: There are many very feasible scenarios in which this could be a matchup of two playoff teams, as my "Hello January!" column showed. Houston's bringing a lot of momentum into this game, while the Ravens seem to be easing in to their offense and putting less pressure on the defense. For the Texans, any game is a must-win, but a victory at home could be the very thing to catapult them into a wild card spot in January. Houston's strengths are Baltimore's weaknesses, so the winner will be whoever can overcome those weaknesses more. Seems obvious, but there is no room for error by either team this game. Can Houston stop the run and keep their offense on the field, or will the Ravens score big early and embarrass the Texans at Reliant Stadium?
Adam's Pick: Texans over Ravens 19-13
James' pick: Houston wins 28-18
Panthers @ Raiders (+7.5)
Adam: The Raiders are an absolute mess. They just cut DeAngelo Hall, they've already fired their head coach, their big WR signing of the offseason couldn't have been more insane or more of a bust. It's amazing how much a team can resemble their owner. The Panthers should be ashamed of themselves if they don't take this one in a rout.
Adam's Pick: Panthers win, 34-12
James' pick: Oakland stuns Carolina 17-14
Colts @ Steelers (-5)
James: Ben Roethlisberger or not, the Steelers are GOOD. I thought the initial reactions to them this season would quickly prove to be wrong as teams found their weaknesses. With Pittsburgh this season, there aren't too many weaknesses. They can hurt you with the run, they can hurt you with the pass, and then if you can stop either of those, you need to score against their rock solid defense. The fan in me is saying "this game is winnable", which it is. No game is unwinnable in the NFL. However, the Colts' chances are slim. They finally someone over 265 lbs at defensive tackle in Antonio Johnson, but he probably won't be ready to play for this matchup. This game is going to be won or lost by Peyton Manning. The defense will be pushed around, that's a given, but they'll need to not miss tackles, get to the ball quickly, and not give a 10 yard cushion (much like their defensive plan against the Patriots). Their biggest strategy on defense, however, is to win ball control. Peyton Manning needs to be a master at the helm for the Colts to win. If we're seeing a lot of 5-6 yard checkdowns to Clark, Gonzalez, and Rhodes/Addai, then we can know that the Colts are playing this game correctly. Even with doing everything perfectly, the sheer physicality of this game is going to make it a tough one to win.
Adam's Pick: Steelers win, 31-27
James the fan's prediction: Indianapolis wins 34-30
James the realist's prediction: Pittsburgh wins 34-18
Cheifs @ Chargers (-4)
James: Nooooo way the Chiefs can upset the Chargers a second time. ...Right? Well, it's highly unlikely, but very possible. This is entirely up to the Chargers. This is the trap game of the year, with Pittsburgh coming up next for San Diego. The Chargers should expect to win this game, but they could very well be thinking about building momentum with a win against the Steelers next week. If the Bolts don't have their head focused on this game, Kansas City could very well take advantage of that and have another strange dominating performance like their first meeting. Jamaal Charles and Tyler Thigpen have a lot more things to like right now than Larry Johnson and Damon Huard/Brodie Croyle. If the Chiefs can stick with San Diego through the first half, they have a great shot to take this game. We'll see what San Diego can bring with an extra week of rest.
Adam's Pick: Chargers win, 34-10
James' pick: Evil Tony Dungy brings the Chiefs to win the season series, 24-13
Giants @ Eagles (+2)
James: My friend Bob is an Eagles fan. He fits into "dudes from New Jersey who associate with Philadelphia teams" category. He walked the entire World Series parade in Philadelphia dressed in a gorilla outfit while drinking Sparks the entire time. Therefore, Bob is the kind of guy you hate to root against. However, this weekend I hope Eli Manning breaks his heart. Every divisional game for the Giants is a statement game, and the statement gets louder each time. Defensive players have nightmares that they keep having to try and tackle Brandon Jacobs one-on-one and wake up just as they're being flattened. Their defense is as good if not better than Pittsburgh's. I think this is the best team in the NFL, and as soon as Tennessee loses, most power rankings should show that. I don't think McNabb and his boys have enough to take the G-Men on.
Adam's Pick: Eagles win, 24-21
James' pick: Giants win in an unbELIable fashion, 31-21
49ers @ Cardinals
James: I can guarantee you the guys on the Niners do not want to see Mike Singletary drop his pants at halftime again. Therefore, we should see some effort from these guys that's been missing these past few weeks. I had a lot of hope for San Francisco prior to the season starting, and I think Singletary could very well turn this season around for them. I don't see them in the playoffs, but a few wins here and a few wins there could put them at 7-9 or 8-8. Arizona has a great opportunity here to put some more space between them and the rest of their division. The Cards brilliant receiving corps and Tim Hightower, maybe the steal of the draft (5th round, overall 149), has reignited the Cards' running game. If the 49ers want a shot at winning, they're going to have to listen to Coach Singletary and play disciplined football. They've had a bye week to prepare for this game, and Shaun Hill may be the answer at quarterback. He also might not be the answer, but it's tough to tell how good a quarterback is when they get sacked more than they complete a pass.
Adam's Pick: Cards win, 48-12
James' pick: San Francisco stuns Arizona 18-13
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